ABSTRACT
Objective: The aim of the study was to assess the impact of CT-based lung pathological opacities volume on critical illness and inflammatory response severity of patients with COVID-19. Methods: A retrospective, single center, single arm study was performed over a 30-day period. In total, 138 patients (85.2%) met inclusion criteria. All patients were evaluated with non-contrast enhanced chest CT scan at hospital admission. CT-based lung segmentation was performed to calculate pathological lung opacities volume (LOV). At baseline, complete blood count (CBC) and inflammation response biomarkers were obtained. The primary endpoint of the study was the occurrence of critical illness, as defined as, the need of mechanical ventilation and/or ICU admission. Mann-Whitney U test was performed for univariate analysis. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine independent predictors of critical illness. Spearman analysis was performed to assess the correlation between inflammatory response biomarkers serum concentrations and LOV. Results: Median LOV was 28.64% (interquartile range [IQR], 6.33-47.22%). Correlation analysis demonstrated that LOV was correlated with higher levels of D-dimer (r = 0.51, p < 0.01), procalcitonin (r = 0.47, p < 0.01) and IL6 (r = 0.48, p < 0.01). Critical illness occurred in 51 patients (37%). Univariate analysis demonstrated that inflammatory response biomarkers and LOV were associated with critical illness (p < 0.05). However, multivariate analysis demonstrated that only D-dimer and LOV were independent predictors of critical illness. Furthermore, a ROC analysis demonstrated that a LOV equal or greater than 60% had a sensitivity of 82.1% and specificity of 70.2% to determine critical illness with an odds ratio of 19.4 (95% CI, 4.2-88.9). Conclusion: Critical illness may occur in up to 37% of the patients with COVID-19. Among patients with critical illness, higher levels of inflammatory response biomarkers with larger LOVs were observed. Furthermore, multivariate analysis demonstrated that pathological lung opacities volume was an independent predictor of critical illness. In fact, patients with a pathological lung opacities volume equal or greater than 60% had 19.4-fold increased risk of critical illness.
ABSTRACT
RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: To assess the effect of computed tomography (CT)-based residual lung volume (RLV) on mortality of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A single-center, retrospective study of a prospectively maintained database was performed. In total, 138 patients with COVID-19 were enrolled. Baseline chest CT scan was performed in all patients. CT-based automated and semi-automated lung segmentation was performed using the Alma Medical workstation to calculate normal lung volume, lung opacities volume, total lung volume, and RLV. The primary end point of the study was mortality. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine independent predictors of mortality. RESULTS: Overall, 84 men (61%) and 54 women (39%) with a mean age of 47.3 years (±14.3 y) were included in the study. Overall mortality rate was 21% (29 patients) at a median time of 7 days (interquartile range, 4 to 11 d). Univariate analysis demonstrated that age, hypertension, and diabetes were associated with death (P<0.01). Similarly, patients who died had lower normal lung volume and RLV than patients who survived (P<0.01). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that low RLV was the only independent predictor of death (odds ratio, 1.042; 95% confidence interval, 10.2-10.65). Furthermore, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis demonstrated that a RLV ≤64% significantly increased the risk of death (odds ratio, 4.8; 95% confidence interval, 1.9-11.7). CONCLUSION: Overall mortality of patients with COVID-19 may reach 21%. Univariate and multivariate analyses demonstrated that reduced RLV was the principal independent predictor of death. Furthermore, RLV ≤64% is associated with a 4-fold increase on the risk of death.